G3 SitRep - Kazakhstan & Azerbaijan Oil Production

Kazakhstan’s oil production exceeded expectations in January 2024, marking a significant deviation from its allocated quota under the OPEC+ agreement. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Kazakhstan produced 1.56 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in January, surpassing its OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million bpd by 92,000 bpd. This surplus production underscores Kazakhstan’s continued efforts to bolster its oil output and expand its presence in global energy markets.

In contrast, Azerbaijan’s oil production in January 2024 fell short of its OPEC+ quota, highlighting divergent trends within the OPEC+ alliance. Azerbaijan produced 480,000 bpd in January, lagging behind its quota of 551,000 bpd by 71,000 bpd. This shortfall underscores the challenges faced by some OPEC+ members in meeting their production targets.

The divergent production trends between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan within the OPEC+ framework have broader implications for global oil markets and the efficacy of OPEC+ agreements. Kazakhstan’s surplus production not only reflects its ambition to capitalize on favorable market conditions but also underscores the challenges of coordinating production levels within the OPEC+ alliance. The disparity in production levels among member countries could potentially impact oil prices and market stability, necessitating additional dialogue and cooperation within the alliance.

Moreover, Kazakhstan’s robust oil production underscores its growing importance as a key player in the global energy landscape. With significant reserves and expanding production capacity, Kazakhstan is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping global oil markets and influencing geopolitical dynamics in the Eurasian region. As Kazakhstan continues to strengthen its position as a major oil producer, analysts and executives should closely monitor its production dynamics and their implications for global energy markets.