G3 SitRep - Kazakhstan’s Economic Growth & Trade Dynamics

Kazakhstan’s economic landscape witnessed notable shifts in 2023, with the nation’s foreign trade turnover increasing by 3.2% to $140 billion. However, this growth came with a significant development as the trade surplus halved from the previous year, declining from $34.4 billion in 2022 to about $18 billion in 2023. The decrease in the trade surplus reflects changing trade dynamics and emphasizes the need for strategic adjustments in the country’s trade policies.

Despite the moderation in the trade surplus, Kazakhstan’s economy displayed resilience, expanding by 3.9% in January 2024. Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baibazarov highlighted the growth across various sectors, with the real sector expanding by 3.8% and the services sector rising by 3.5%. This growth trajectory follows a robust performance in 2023 when Kazakhstan’s GDP increased by 5.1%.

The construction sector emerged as a key driver of economic expansion in 2023, growing by an impressive 13.3%, while trade, services, information and communication, transport, and industrial production sectors also contributed significantly to economic growth. Kazakhstan’s international reserves stood at $96 billion in 2023, with $60 billion in assets in the National Fund, indicating stability and fiscal prudence.

Looking ahead, newly appointed Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov set an ambitious target of achieving 6% GDP growth in 2024, signaling the government’s commitment to fostering sustained economic development. However, challenges remain, as January 2024 saw a slower growth rate, prompting a call for proactive measures to stimulate economic activity and mitigate risks.

International institutions offer varied forecasts for Kazakhstan’s economic trajectory, with the World Bank predicting GDP growth of 4.3% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth rates of 3.1% and 5.7%, respectively. These projections underscore the importance of adaptive policymaking and structural reforms to navigate uncertainties and capitalize on emerging opportunities in Kazakhstan’s evolving economic landscape.