The Word is rapidly changing in four major ways. First, the population growth of the Less Developed Third and Fourth World countries is growing logarithmically while the population of the More Developed First and Second World countries is actually declining. This leads to the idea that the two primary trends of technology and population growth are leading to the two secondary trends of mass relocation of manufacturing facilities from the Global North to the Global South, and the mass migration of people from the Global South to the North. The conclusion is twofold; a) the world is moving towards a global wage-labor equilibrium process and, b) since global population growth is outpacing global economic growth the global wage-labor rate is necessarily declining and income disparity in First World countries will continue to increase to that of the less developed countries. Secondly, the global political center of gravity (GPCOG) is drastically shifting as Russia, the world’s largest energy and raw materials producer has steadily been infrastructurally integrating with China along the Silk Road and the Far East with China which is becoming the World’s largest industrial and manufacturing center. Thirdly, when one combines the first and second trends the collective West has been de-industrializing since the 1980s, which has accelerated during the 2000s, while Germany is in a rapid de-industrialization phase since covid and the Western sanctions on the Russian Federation. Since German industry has been shifting much of its manufacturing facilities to Southern and Eastern Asia, the upshot is that the Global Political Center of Gravity is likely to shift considerably from Washington and London to Moscow and Beijing over the next five years if present trends continue. The variables in this case are Western Europe where the deindustrialization policies, combined with declining wages, and rising energy costs combine to lead to declining living standards in First and Second World Countries in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. If these trends continue the expectation is a change in political sentiment drifting away from political parties that favor “Globalization” to political parties favoring a more “Europe first” set of policies. Fourthly, things are rapidly but somewhat predictably changing in SE Asia and Eastern Asia. China has been pursuing a Silk Road Strategy to link energy pipelines, railways, highways, and port facility infrastructure in order to maximize overland logistical supply routes in order to; a) increase the immense energy and raw material wealth in Central and Northern Asia to feed its immense manufacturing facilities while, b) minimizing US and UK Naval Spykman and Mahan based maritime choke point interdiction strategies that have been well known for decades if not longer. In this sense, the geopolitical and geostrategic plans of Russia and China are predictable and can be represented in rational choice models. The rational choice “Russian Stat-Plan Model” has already been presented as an article series and in a video series with Stuart Turley on Energy News Beat (more polished production versions are in the works along with other “strategic-planning” rational choice model videos). As far as China goes, its strategic planning lies in expanding its overland logistical supply route infrastructure into Laos and Cambodia in order to secure access to agricultural production from its neighbors on one hand while further reducing dependencies on food imports from overseas Five Eye and NATO nations, i. e. namely the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Due to the predictive nature of the Primary and Secondary Trends in aspect 1, and the strategic plans of aspects 2, 3, and 4, the global political center of power changes can best be explained in an “8 Industrial  Power Center Model” of the US and UK, Germany and Russia, India, China, Japan and South Korea. The “8 Industrial Power Model” is an update of Ambassador George F. Kennan’s original “5 Industrial Power Center Model” resented in his original “Long Telegram” in 1947 and his “X article” in Foreign Affairs in 1948. Kennan has long been considered the “father” of the Cold War containment strategies and is the progenitor of the Brzezinski-Wolfowitz-Rand series of books, articles, and papers that appear to be guiding United States foreign policy currently. Key driving factors will be the immense energy reserves in the Middle East, the Caspian Sea countries, and Central Asia along with the enormous Reserves of the Russian Federation across its lands.The Russian Federation alone has the ability to feed the industrial power centers of Germany and Europe as a whole along with India and China, and Russia’s Far East and Sakhalin Island oil and Natural Gas reserves have the ability to supply both Japan and South Korea with all their energy needs at a much lower price and lower logistical risk as opposed to far way sources in the Middle East, or even the oil and natural gas reserves from Indonesian, Malaysian and Brunei sources. The problem with these sources is that they must be shipped through maritime chokepoints and are vulnerable in a time of kinetic conflict. If South Korea and Japan were to be cut off from their overseas energy sources during a time of conflict their respective economies would be facing potentially catastrophic consequences. Rational choice strategic planning models are based on maximizing economic growth potentials and minimizing risk; especially catastrophic vulnerabilities. In closing, it is the overall global economic growth/global population proportions that are the outcomes of the two primary and two post-1950s secondary trends that shape the overarching environment of all global nation-state actors. Meanwhile, the two secondary trends will be shaping global regional dynamics, where the “8 Industrial Power Center Model” allows one to assess the policy directions and the democratic reactions of the populations of each region; which facilitates a certain level of predictiveness in the global realignment of great power politics that the world is currently going through.The combination of overarching and regional modeling, combined in the proper framework, would be good for guiding geostrategic investment strategies.Editor’s Note: Originally Published August of 2023; Updated and Republished February of 2024.

Rational choice strategic planning models are based on maximizing economic growth potentials and minimizing risk; especially catastrophic vulnerabilities. Th

Geopolitical Modeling in the Current World: The 8 Industrial Power Center Model

The Word is rapidly changing in four major ways. 

First, the population growth of the Less Developed Third and Fourth World countries is growing logarithmically while the population of the More Developed First and Second World countries is actually declining. This leads to the idea that the two primary trends of technology and population growth are leading to the two secondary trends of mass relocation of manufacturing facilities from the Global North to the Global South, and the mass migration of people from the Global South to the North. The conclusion is twofold; a) the world is moving towards a global wage-labor equilibrium process and, b) since global population growth is outpacing global economic growth the global wage-labor rate is necessarily declining and income disparity in First World countries will continue to increase to that of the less developed countries. 

Secondly, the global political center of gravity (GPCOG) is drastically shifting as Russia, the world's largest energy and raw materials producer has steadily been infrastructurally integrating with China along the Silk Road and the Far East with China which is becoming the World’s largest industrial and manufacturing center. 

Thirdly, when one combines the first and second trends the collective West has been de-industrializing since the 1980s, which has accelerated during the 2000s, while Germany is in a rapid de-industrialization phase since covid and the Western sanctions on the Russian Federation. Since German industry has been shifting much of its manufacturing facilities to Southern and Eastern Asia, the upshot is that the Global Political Center of Gravity is likely to shift considerably from Washington and London to Moscow and Beijing over the next five years if present trends continue. 

The variables in this case are Western Europe where the deindustrialization policies, combined with declining wages, and rising energy costs combine to lead to declining living standards in First and Second World Countries in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. If these trends continue the expectation is a change in political sentiment drifting away from political parties that favor “Globalization” to political parties favoring a more “Europe first” set of policies. 

Fourthly, things are rapidly but somewhat predictably changing in SE Asia and Eastern Asia. China has been pursuing a Silk Road Strategy to link energy pipelines, railways, highways, and port facility infrastructure in order to maximize overland logistical supply routes in order to; a) increase the immense energy and raw material wealth in Central and Northern Asia to feed its immense manufacturing facilities while, b) minimizing US and UK Naval Spykman and Mahan based maritime choke point interdiction strategies that have been well known for decades if not longer. 

In this sense, the geopolitical and geostrategic plans of Russia and China are predictable and can be represented in rational choice models. The rational choice “Russian Stat-Plan Model” has already been presented as an article series and in a video series with Stuart Turley on Energy News Beat (more polished production versions are in the works along with other “strategic-planning” rational choice model videos). 

As far as China goes, its strategic planning lies in expanding its overland logistical supply route infrastructure into Laos and Cambodia in order to secure access to agricultural production from its neighbors on one hand while further reducing dependencies on food imports from overseas Five Eye and NATO nations, i. e. namely the US, Australia, and New Zealand. 

Due to the predictive nature of the Primary and Secondary Trends in aspect 1, and the strategic plans of aspects 2, 3, and 4, the global political center of power changes can best be explained in an “8 Industrial  Power Center Model” of the US and UK, Germany and Russia, India, China, Japan and South Korea. The “8 Industrial Power Model” is an update of Ambassador George F. Kennan’s original “5 Industrial Power Center Model” resented in his original “Long Telegram” in 1947 and his “X article” in Foreign Affairs in 1948. Kennan has long been considered the “father” of the Cold War containment strategies and is the progenitor of the Brzezinski-Wolfowitz-Rand series of books, articles, and papers that appear to be guiding United States foreign policy currently. 

Key driving factors will be the immense energy reserves in the Middle East, the Caspian Sea countries, and Central Asia along with the enormous Reserves of the Russian Federation across its lands.

The Russian Federation alone has the ability to feed the industrial power centers of Germany and Europe as a whole along with India and China, and Russia’s Far East and Sakhalin Island oil and Natural Gas reserves have the ability to supply both Japan and South Korea with all their energy needs at a much lower price and lower logistical risk as opposed to far way sources in the Middle East, or even the oil and natural gas reserves from Indonesian, Malaysian and Brunei sources. The problem with these sources is that they must be shipped through maritime chokepoints and are vulnerable in a time of kinetic conflict. If South Korea and Japan were to be cut off from their overseas energy sources during a time of conflict their respective economies would be facing potentially catastrophic consequences. Rational choice strategic planning models are based on maximizing economic growth potentials and minimizing risk; especially catastrophic vulnerabilities. 

In closing, it is the overall global economic growth/global population proportions that are the outcomes of the two primary and two post-1950s secondary trends that shape the overarching environment of all global nation-state actors. Meanwhile, the two secondary trends will be shaping global regional dynamics, where the “8 Industrial Power Center Model” allows one to assess the policy directions and the democratic reactions of the populations of each region; which facilitates a certain level of predictiveness in the global realignment of great power politics that the world is currently going through.

The combination of overarching and regional modeling, combined in the proper framework, would be good for guiding geostrategic investment strategies.

Editor's Note: Originally Published August of 2023; Updated and Republished February of 2024.

Duisburg 4733266

As the Founder of the G3Strat Group, he combines business acumen with military precision to guide companies in risk resilience. With over a decade of experience, he has held multiple roles in security, intelligence, and training. His expertise includes risk assessment, national security, operational planning, and intelligence analysis.

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George McMillan

Founder and Head of Research

The Word is rapidly changing in four major ways.

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